Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 13.185944 15.071542 17.117210 19.499592 22.196114 25.151750 28.635274
2024-10-06 10.405517 12.930213 15.889307 19.606467 24.144001 29.495577 36.278981
2024-10-13 9.218892 12.079115 15.599182 20.236418 26.170545 33.494748 43.205078
2024-10-20 7.973488 10.952816 14.782120 20.043771 27.062901 36.078912 48.511112
2024-10-27 6.692897 9.587290 13.453081 18.965875 26.593631 36.739433 51.217034
2024-11-03 6.166359 9.166114 13.310510 19.416588 28.139705 40.101132 57.685750
2024-11-10 5.720941 8.798639 13.184900 19.843299 29.637146 43.444087 64.298340
2024-11-17 5.163707 8.204004 12.667096 19.637163 30.176805 45.429127 69.061309
2024-11-24 4.639251 7.602431 12.076376 19.253932 30.394700 46.919710 73.145299
2024-12-01 4.280500 7.220701 11.778131 19.275318 31.198412 49.293238 78.654740
2024-12-08 4.030114 6.986254 11.682930 19.593045 32.462030 52.413979 85.465343
2024-12-15 3.764601 6.700709 11.478314 19.709511 33.397253 55.058690 91.660839
2024-12-22 3.466809 6.341021 11.134279 19.587259 33.962654 57.194785 97.253852
2024-12-29 3.254627 6.110384 10.986210 19.778434 35.053786 60.237898 104.505361
2025-01-05 3.133770 6.029036 11.082186 20.385438 36.873431 64.565391 114.116387
2025-01-12 2.897068 5.714611 10.743663 20.200548 37.303207 66.572770 119.900743
2025-01-19 2.550600 5.163427 9.936843 19.111786 36.054784 65.618663 120.492981
2025-01-26 2.453129 5.079485 9.975572 19.566743 37.601441 69.601562 129.957269
2025-02-02 2.359007 4.993333 10.001899 19.996285 39.121772 73.612344 139.681709
2025-02-09 2.192814 4.748140 9.705973 19.788735 39.433812 75.455008 145.559378
2025-02-16 2.020192 4.474460 9.333229 19.402651 39.375071 76.603813 150.203032
2025-02-23 1.907097 4.315197 9.174102 19.424204 40.098926 79.236088 157.752968
2025-03-02 1.833498 4.233753 9.165023 19.744266 41.424131 83.066463 167.774542